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Electric Cars Will Replace Gas Vehicles. But When? 

Carr.pk
Carr.pk
4 min read
Electric Cars Will Replace Gas Vehicles. But When?  - Carr.pk

The debate over electric vehicles replacing gas-powered cars has moved from ‘if’ to ‘when’: When will electric cars fully replace gas-powered vehicles?

Governments point to firm deadlines, such as the EU’s proposed 2035 ban on new ICE vehicle sales, while companies such as Uber promise fully electric fleets by 2040. 

However, this transition will not happen overnight, especially in developing markets like Pakistan, regardless of the updated NEV Policy 2025-30. Instead, it’s a multi-decade journey influenced by technological, economic, and infrastructural factors.

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TL;DR

The shift from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles is a gradual process driven by infrastructure, technological advancements, and affordability. In Pakistan, where infrastructure remains a challenge, it will take decades for EVs to replace fuel vehicles fully. The key barriers include limited charging infrastructure and the long lifespan of existing fuel vehicles.

Why It’s Not A Big Bang Event

Or no single “EV Takeover” year yet?

The biggest misconception is equating new-car sales with vehicles actually on the road.

Globally, there are over 1.3 billion internal combustion vehicles in active use today. Even if every new car sold from tomorrow onward were electric,  which they aren’t, these fuel vehicles would still remain in circulation for 15 to 20 years on average.

That means:

  • EVs can dominate new sales without replacing the existing fleet
  • Full replacement depends on how fast old vehicles retire, not just how fast EVs are sold

This is especially true for Pakistan, where the majority of vehicles on the road are well past their prime. The real question is: How fast will old vehicles retire? This alone pushes the real “replacement” timeline well beyond the 2030s.

The Transition Follows an S-Curve, Not a Deadline

Research consistently shows EV adoption follows an S-curve:

  1. Early phase: Slow uptake (where many developing markets still are)
  2. Acceleration phase: Rapid growth once costs fall and infrastructure improves
  3. Final phase: The hardest 15–20%, involving rural areas, heavy use cases, and low-income buyers

While many countries are entering or nearing the acceleration phase, the final phase, the toughest 20%, will take decades to complete. Rural areas and less-developed regions of Pakistan are unlikely to see widespread EV adoption anytime soon.

This graph highlights the critical distinction between market share (new sales) and fleet share (total cars on the road). While EV adoption is reaching a “tipping point” in new-car showrooms, the global vehicle fleet is slow to change due to the 20-year lifecycle of modern automobiles.

The Problem? Infrastructure. 

Battery technology has improved faster than expected. What hasn’t kept pace is system-level readiness, including:

  • Reliable public charging networks
  • Grid capacity and stability
  • Apartment and street-level charging access
  • Rural and intercity coverage

While EV infrastructure is developing globally, Pakistan is still significantly behind. Without robust infrastructure development, EVs in Pakistan will remain an urban phenomenon for the foreseeable future.

Is it Cost? Is it Policy?

Government incentives and policies such as PAVE (Pakistan Accelerated Vehicle Electrification) can accelerate EV adoption, but they aren’t enough to guarantee a smooth transition. The real tipping point will come when EVs are consistently cheaper to own and operate than fuel vehicles.

  • Vehicle Price: The upfront cost of EVs remains high, especially when compared to the more affordable fuel vehicles that dominate Pakistan’s roads. 
  • Charging Convenience: Without a widespread, easily accessible charging network, EVs are impractical for the average Pakistani driver. 
  • Energy Costs and Grid Reliability: With frequent power outages and high electricity prices, many Pakistanis are reluctant to rely on electric cars.

Only when EVs become cheaper to buy, easier to charge, and more reliable to operate will the transition to electric vehicles become irreversible.

So… When Do Electric Cars Fully Replace Gas Cars?

In summary, predicting the exact year when NEVs will fully replace fuel vehicles is speculative. The shift is a complex, non-linear process that requires concerted efforts across infrastructure, technology, and policy.

Rather than focusing on arbitrary deadlines like 2035, we must look to the broader picture: the development of reliable infrastructure, advancements in battery technology, and government support for electric mobility. 

The Bigger Picture

Instead of asking “What year will EVs replace petrol cars?”, the more useful questions are:

  • Are charging networks expanding faster than vehicle sales?
  • Are power grids becoming stronger, cleaner, and more reliable?
  • Is electric car ownership becoming cheaper without subsidies?

These indicators — not political deadlines or headline promises — will determine when the transition is truly complete.

For markets like Pakistan, this reality is especially clear. Fuel vehicles will remain relevant for a long time, even as electric vehicles steadily grow around them.

The real question isn’t when petrol cars disappear.
 It’s when electric cars become cheaper, easier to use, and practical for most drivers.

That moment is coming — but it won’t arrive all at once.

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